You get what you expect

Oliver Burkeman's review of David Robson's book, The Expectation Effect, makes me think it could be a worthy addition to my reading pile.

I am very fond of what Burkeman refers to as "defensive pessimism," that is, keeping expectations low to avoid disappointment. This way, if things turn out well, I'm pleasantly surprised. However, as Robson's book points out, this is not the attitude to assume. What you expect is what you get. For instance, even if you knowingly take a placebo, but expect benefits from it, you will reap those gains.

Burkeman points out that, "Robson's central point is that the expectation effect isn't an amusing psychological quirk, but a fundamental aspect of our interactions with reality. Our brains are “prediction machines”, steering us through life by generating expectations, and only revising them when unavoidable. Those expectations then play a vital role in shaping what we experience."

As I was reading the review, I thought about the role the expectation effect plays in sports. It seems to me, in order to be successful, sports people need a significant amount of self-belief, almost to the point of brainwashing. This was my perception, when I read Diana Nyad's account of swimming from Key West, Florida to Havana, Cuba, without a shark cage, aged 64.

Nyad expected to be able to make it and buttressed this belief every time she trained. At the beginning of each attempt, she would sound the bugle before leaping into the water, like somone who expects to succeed. Expectation is of course not a guarantee of success. Nyad failed 4 times before finally making the crossing successfully in 2013.

Expecting desired outcomes is not about positive thinking or denying negative feelings. Instead, the expecation effect helps us reframe bad things.

Burkeman says:

The result of marinating for a while in this outlook is surprisingly transformative. We’re accustomed to thinking of the external world as an implacable thing that either lives up to, or more commonly frustrates, our expectations. That’s why I’ve always been fond of “defensive pessimism”: keep your expectations low, and you can only ever be pleasantly surprised. But this approach defines our expectations as wholly impotent: vain hopes that reality might or might not deign to fulfil. The Expectation Effect shows that, on the contrary, our expectations participate actively in that reality.

... We defensive pessimists could do with remembering that sometimes things do actually turn out really well – especially if you expect them to.

If, as the book suggests, what we believe determines the outcomes we get, you might as well believe in your most desirable outcome, and you may very well get it.